Middle East Aviation Update
Following the signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States (US) and Iran on 17 June, aviation conditions across much of the Middle East improved considerably as airspace restrictions were eased and commercial services resumed. However, renewed military exchanges during July have demonstrated that the agreement remains fragile, with ceasefire violations and retaliatory strikes highlighting the potential for rapid deterioration. While most aviation travel in the Middle East continue to operate normally as of the time of writing, travellers should recognise that the regional security environment remains volatile and disruptions can return with little warning.
Is it currently safe to fly through the Middle East?
Our assessment is yes, but with some important caveats.
The security environment has improved significantly since the ceasefire came into effect. Major aviation hubs in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have largely returned to normal operations, and the widespread airspace closures seen during the height of the conflict have eased. For most travellers, flying to or transiting through these countries is once again a viable option.
However, the ceasefire remains fragile. Ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon, continued tensions involving Hezbollah, and the potential for renewed Iranian retaliation mean the regional security environment can deteriorate with little warning. While the likelihood of widespread disruption is currently lower than it was earlier this year, the risk has not disappeared.
Travellers should therefore remain informed, monitor developments before departure, and be prepared for possible schedule changes or short-notice airspace restrictions.
How has the conflict disrupted air travel?
In the hours and days following US strikes on Iranian territory in late February, Iran retaliated with a barrage of missile attacks targeting Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US military installation in the Middle East. Missile attacks were also directed at Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
While these attacks primarily targeted military facilities, commercial aviation was also affected. Airports including Dubai International Airport, Kuwait International Airport, Erbil International Airport and Baghdad International Airport experienced operational disruptions as the threat environment deteriorated.
Airspace across the Middle East closed in quick succession. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel all imposed full or partial flight restrictions. Major international airlines, including British Airways, Air France, KLM, Cathay Pacific and Lufthansa, suspended services to destinations across the Gulf region. The result was one of the most significant disruptions to Middle Eastern aviation in recent history.
What has changed?
Since the ceasefire, commercial aviation has experienced a cautious but steady recovery. Operations at major Gulf aviation hubs, including Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, have largely normalised. Airlines have resumed most scheduled services, while some carriers, including Qatar Airways, have expanded regional connectivity.
Despite this recovery, aviation authorities – such as the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) - continue to advise operators to exercise caution across much of the Gulf region while maintaining stronger conflict-zone advisories for the airspace over Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.
Why caution remains necessary
The cautious position adopted by aviation authorities reflects the uncertainty surrounding the durability of the ceasefire.
The most significant challenge is the situation in Lebanon, where Israel continues to conduct military operations against Hezbollah. Any escalation involving Iranian interests could prompt further retaliation, potentially jeopardising the ceasefire agreement.
As demonstrated during the conflict earlier this year, and as recently highlighted by the drone attack on Kuwait International Airport's Terminal 1 on 03 June, retaliation can occur with little warning and may affect countries beyond those directly involved in hostilities.
Although the immediate threat has reduced considerably, the regional security environment remains fluid.
Our opinion
At My Travel Risk, we do not believe destinations should simply be labelled as "safe" or "unsafe." Travel risk exists on a spectrum and should be assessed according to current conditions, where you are travelling, how you are travelling, and your personal circumstances.
Our assessment is that most travellers can confidently fly to or transit through major Gulf aviation hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Riyadh and Bahrain, provided they remain informed and understand that disruptions are possible.
We do not currently believe the situation warrants avoiding these destinations altogether. Instead, travellers should understand the remaining risks, monitor developments throughout their journey and be prepared for changes should regional tensions escalate again.
By contrast, travellers should continue to avoid routes and destinations where active conflict persists or where aviation authorities continue to advise against commercial operations.
Travel advice
If you are travelling through the Middle East in the coming weeks, consider the following:
- Book flexible airfares where possible.
- Check your airline's operational updates 24 to 48 hours before departure.
- Avoid countries and airspace subject to active aviation restrictions.
- Register with your country's embassy or consular service before travelling.
- Purchase travel insurance that explicitly covers conflict-related disruption.
- Monitor official government travel advisories alongside the latest assessments from My Travel Risk.
To understand more about the risks you face and how to limit them: